Trader Nicks latest video from March 22nd, 2026
Dollar Strength, Oil Longs & Why Gold Is Falling — Weekly Outlook
Trader Nick from March, 22nd 2026
Nick opens with the Middle East situation front and center: Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz if the US strikes power plants. He checks IG weekend oil pricing to gauge the open — a slight uptick expected, but nothing definitive yet. The broader theme of the session: a macro reset is underway across multiple asset classes simultaneously, and the playbook needs to reflect that.
The S&P 500: First Real Breakdown in a Year
For the first time in roughly a year, US equity markets are seeing a sustained pullback rather than a quick dip that gets immediately bought. Friday's close was decisive — the S&P 500, SPY, QQQ, and NASDAQ all closed below the 200-day moving average for the first time in this cycle.
His view: this matters. Large institutional players watch the 200-day MA as a simple long-term trend indicator, and losing it changes the narrative. The cause isn't a mystery — two problems are arriving simultaneously:
- Oil prices spiking → inflationary pressure → yields rising
- Rate cut expectations gone → markets entered 2026 pricing two to three cuts; the current consensus is now zero cuts for the entire year
He remains cautious on stocks and is not rushing to buy the dip. Geopolitical uncertainty, oil-induced inflation, and ongoing tension between the Trump administration and multiple counterparties globally are all headwinds he considers too significant to ignore right now.
The US Dollar: Staying Bullish
His highest-conviction macro trade remains long US dollar. The EdgeFinder tool he uses is showing a +8 score — fundamentals, sentiment, technicals, and economic data all pointing the same direction.
On the chart, the dollar index ran from recent lows up to 100.5 and has since pulled back to 99.5. He's not concerned — he'd expect the 38.2% to 50% Fibonacci retracement zone to act as support, with dollar bulls likely stepping back in around there. His upside target: 101.5–102, which would be a 52-week high. If the Middle East situation becomes more entrenched rather than resolving quickly, he thinks the dollar could break even higher.
What makes him particularly confident: institutional accumulation has been building for months, well before the 2026 macro narrative shifted. The COT (Commitment of Traders) data shows a clear trend of non-commercial (banks, hedge funds) long allocation in the dollar — not a recent reaction trade, but a slow deliberate build. That kind of positioning takes time to unwind.
Current position: Short NZD/USD (Kiwi dollar). He took partial profits on Friday and is looking for continuation lower toward prior lows. The New Zealand dollar is scoring -7 on EdgeFinder while USD scores +8 — one of the cleaner directional trades in his book right now.
Oil: Staying Long Despite Noise
Nick is long oil and holding. His reasoning is a supply/demand double: geopolitical uncertainty constrains supply, while the US economy — despite the weak NFP print — remains in a relatively decent spot by most metrics. Powell himself described the economy as resilient at the last Fed meeting.
The data he's watching:
- NFP was bad (unemployment ticked to 4.4%), but jobless claims came in at 205K vs 215K expected
- ADP employment better than expected
- JOLTS job openings ticked up for the first time in a while
- PMIs, retail sales, consumer confidence — all reasonably strong
Inflation is the complication. He notes the "90/90 rule" he's heard from other analysts: 90 days of oil above $90 is where you start seeing real economic damage — gas prices hurt consumers, unemployment starts rising. He doesn't think we're there yet, but it's something he's monitoring.
His stop: below recent structure. If the trade is wrong, he cuts it and moves on. If oil breaks above the current resistance level this week and closes strongly above it, he'll trail the stop into profit.
One detail he finds interesting from sentiment data: crowd positioning in oil was very pessimistic even as price was trending higher through the week. In his experience, an uptrend with bearish sentiment is a sweet spot for short squeezes — exactly the kind of setup he wants to be long in.
Gold: Watching for the 200-Day MA Retest
Gold is dropping hard and the reasoning is straightforward once you understand the rate cut story. With zero cuts now expected for 2026, the dollar strengthens and the opportunity cost of holding gold rises. He's not surprised and has been cautious on gold for this reason.
He addresses a question he hears constantly: "Why is gold falling when there's a war?" His answer is nuanced:
Two forces are crushing gold simultaneously. First, the rate cut probability collapse directly strengthens the dollar and weakens gold's appeal. Second — and this is the less obvious one — global margin calls are forcing liquidation across all assets. When volatility spikes (VIX elevated, GVZ gold volatility elevated), leveraged accounts get margin calls and need to raise cash fast. They sell whatever they can — stocks, gold, silver, Bitcoin. It's not about gold's fundamentals in that moment; it's about liquidity.
His colleague Chris has been flagging for a while that the 200-day MA on gold has gone untested for approximately 860 days — an unusually long stretch. A retest of that level is what he considers likely in coming weeks.
One contrarian note: put/call ratio data on gold showed very pessimistic crowd sentiment into the end of last week, and the 100-day MA was just retested. A short-term bounce is possible. He's watching — but not positioning long yet.
What Institutions Are Actually Doing
The weekly COT (Commitment of Traders) report shows where banks and hedge funds were actively adding or reducing positions. The most notable reads from last week:
Adding longs / reducing shorts: Nikkei, South African rand, US dollar, New Zealand dollar (reduced shorts), platinum, Australian dollar, Dow Jones, British pound
Reducing longs / adding shorts: NASDAQ, US oil, copper, gold, silver, Russell 2000, JPY, Euro, CAD
The NASDAQ detail is particularly striking — institutional money has been consistently reducing long exposure on the NASDAQ for months, well before the recent selloff became obvious to most traders. He considers this a meaningful signal that the current weakness isn't a surprise to the big players.
The Summary in One Paragraph
The macro picture Nick is trading against right now: dollar strength driven by rate cut expectations being wiped out, oil supported by geopolitical tension and decent underlying US growth, gold under pressure from rising rates and forced liquidation, and equities in a genuine technical breakdown that warrants patience rather than aggressive dip-buying. His active positions are short NZD/USD and long oil, with stops clearly defined on both. Everything else — stocks, gold, dollar longs — he's watching but not forcing.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is a summary of a publicly available YouTube session and does not represent the author's personal trading opinions or financial advice. All views, levels, and trade ideas referenced belong to the presenter of the original video. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.