Trader Nick is getting even more bearish
In his latest Sunday video, TraderNick walks through his trade setups for the week ahead against a backdrop of escalating Middle East tensions and persistent oil price strength.
He opens by flagging breaking news: Iran's foreign minister warned that American energy assets in the region could be targeted if Iranian infrastructure is attacked. This, he says, only reinforces his view that oil prices are likely to stay elevated — and that the stock market will continue to feel the pressure as a result. He frames it plainly: until geopolitical uncertainty resolves, the path of least resistance for stocks is lower. (0:24)
On equities, he remains short the Dow Jones — a position he entered after Trump suggested the conflict would end quickly, reasoning that wars don't end based on just one side's wishes. (2:43) All three major US indices are threatening to break below their 200-day moving averages, which he considers a potential early signal of a bearish market forming. He also points out that the Magnificent 7 stocks peaked back in October, meaning the market's leadership has been deteriorating for roughly 90 trading days. (9:29) A 10% correction from highs would be a historically reasonable response to this kind of oil shock — and at roughly 6% down, markets aren't there yet. (29:08)
On the dollar, he says the US Dollar Index closing above 100 for the first time since last August is a meaningful technical milestone. (10:15) His preferred trade has been shorting GBP/USD, which performed very well over the past two weeks. He attributes dollar strength to sticky inflation, rising two-year yields, and the Fed's inability to cut rates while oil is driving inflation higher. He's now out of the pound short but watching for a pullback toward the 1.32–1.3305 area to potentially re-enter. (13:28)
On gold, the bull thesis is fading in his view. Despite the ongoing war, the original case — aggressive central bank rate cuts, loose monetary policy, a weakening dollar — is no longer in play. Rate cuts are being priced out, not in, and the Fed can't cut into rising inflation without risking a repeat of the 7–9% inflation the economy only recently recovered from. His EdgeFinder tool is showing gold at a fundamental score of minus-6, one of its weakest readings. (22:06)
Bitcoin is on his watchlist. He finds it notable that it has held up while equities have been selling off, calling it genuine relative strength. EdgeFinder is giving BTC a bullish reading, and if sentiment shifts and risk appetite returns, he says Bitcoin would be his first choice for playing the upside — though he wants to see a clear breakout before committing. (18:52)
He closes with a reminder of his broader trading philosophy: form strong opinions based on the macro and the charts, but hold them loosely enough to change. The best traders aren't permabulls or permabears — they follow the flow and stay open-minded. (12:42) His current stance: short stocks, long dollar, oil bid, gold cautious, and one eye on Bitcoin for the first sign of a reversal.
This is a summary and review of TraderNick's weekly trade setup video. Watch the full video here. Not financial advice.