Toni Turner Update from March 20th, 2026
Three Charts for the Week Ahead: SPY, QQQ & XME
Toni Turner from March 20th, 2026
Toni opens with the backdrop: stocks falling again on Friday, Iran and Israel exchanging strikes overnight, new attacks on energy sites in the Persian Gulf, and triple options expiration day adding its own layer of volatility on top of everything else. WTI and Brent crude are up more than 40% since the war began. It's not a clean tape to be trading.
Her approach for the session: three charts, three clear reads, and a honest assessment of where things stand heading into the week.
Chart 1 — SPY: Below All Three Major Moving Averages
When she captured the chart on Friday afternoon, SPY was trading at $651 — approximately 7% below the January all-time high of $697, and back down to the November lows.
The moving average picture is now unambiguous:
- 20-day MA: ~$675 — resistance above
- 50-day MA: ~$683 — resistance above
- 200-day MA: ~$660 — now also resistance above
SPY is trading below all three. That's a meaningful change from the environment of the past year, when the index walked steadily up the 20-day in a near-uninterrupted uptrend from the April 2025 lows at $481 — a 44% gain to the January high.
The path down was a series of lower highs: $697 in January, sideways range of $676–$697 for several weeks, then a rollover three weeks ago that brought price all the way back to current levels.
Potential support below: a small zone around $634 from August/September consolidation. Resistance above: the 200-day at $660, then thickening resistance from $670 upward.
Her stance: watching for opportunities on the long side, taking notes, building a list — but not buying yet. She's waiting for the war situation to show signs of resolution before committing capital.
Chart 2 — QQQ: 9% Off Highs, Testing November Lows
The QQQ picture is similar but more stretched. When the chart was captured, QQQ was trading at $582.43 — 9% below the October/January all-time highs at $636–$637, and just barely breaking the November lows at $585.
Moving averages:
- 20-day MA: ~$603 — resistance
- 50-day MA: ~$610 — resistance
- 200-day MA: ~$591 — resistance
Like SPY, QQQ is now below all three. The April 2025 lows at $402 to the October high at $637 was a 58% rally — even more dramatic than SPY's move. That kind of extended run naturally sets up a more meaningful correction when sentiment shifts.
Overhead resistance: $592 immediately, then $628, then $636–$637.
Potential support below current levels: around $560, though she's hoping for a rebound before price gets there. She notes this is a midterm election year, and historically those years tend to see at least one 15% drawdown at some point — something worth keeping in mind as context.
Chart 3 — XME: Metals & Mining ETF on the Watchlist
The most interesting forward-looking chart of the three. XME — the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF, holding names like Freeport-McMoRan, Royal Gold, Hecla Mining, and Alcoa — is not a buy right now. But it's on her radar for when conditions change.
Key facts on the chart:
- Trading at ~$101.89 on Friday
- Below the 20-day (~$113.75) and 50-day (~$118)
- Still above the 200-day MA at ~$95 — notably different from SPY and QQQ
- 32% off its January all-time high of $135
- RSI reached 84 at the highs — strongly overbought territory, and the subsequent rollover made sense technically
Her thesis: gold miners and metals companies have a specific catalyst waiting — the end of the war. When that happens, she expects a meaningful rebound in this sector. Her process:
- Wait for the war to show signs of resolution
- Give it two to three days to find a bottom after that news
- Look for a solid rebound accompanied by volume
- Consider a starter position with a 5–6% stop below entry
- Add to the position only after three consecutive closes above the 50-day MA — then switch to a trailing stop
She's not buying here. But XME goes on the watchlist.
Existing Positions
Two names she's holding through the current volatility:
IGV (iShares Software ETF) — she's owned it for several weeks with a stop at $80. It hasn't triggered and has been holding up relatively well.
CLOU (Global X Cloud Computing ETF) — highlighted about three weeks ago, and in her words, it's not doing a "dumpster dive." Hanging in there.
The Bottom Line
Her overarching rule for this environment is simple and she repeats it clearly: no new long positions in a meaningful size until the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Until that geopolitical risk clears, the macro headwind is too significant to fight.
The flip side: she's actively building her watchlist, taking notes, and preparing for what she expects to be significant buying opportunities once the dust settles. The setup is coming — the timing is the only unknown.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is a summary of a publicly available YouTube session and does not represent the author's personal trading opinions or financial advice. All views, levels, and trade ideas referenced belong to the presenter of the original video. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.