One Option Pete sees a rare opportunity March 22nd, 2026
A summary of Pete's latest YouTube session — his views, his levels, his trade ideas
Weekly OneOption Video from Pete March 22nd, 2026
In this session, Pete opens with a bold claim: one of the best trading setups in years may be forming right now — and it's a direct consequence of the recent selloff.
The Setup He's Watching For
The market broke below the 200-day moving average on heavy selling into Friday's close. In Pete's view, that breakdown sets the stage for a specific pattern he's traded many times throughout his career: the selling climax.
Here's exactly what he's looking for:
- Gap down Sunday night/Monday morning — follow-through panic from the Friday breakdown
- Consecutive long red candles with minimal overlap, closing near their lows — persistent selling that feeds on itself, triggering stop losses and margin calls
- The air pocket moment — one final gigantic red candle where it feels like the market will never bounce again
- A bullish engulfing candle — a massive green candle that eclipses the open of that last red candle. This is the signal
- A second stacked green candle immediately after — this is the confirmation. Do not act on the first green candle alone; it can be a fake
- Consecutive stacked green candles on heavy volume — no wicks, no hesitation. Boom, boom, boom. That's aggressive buying
The earlier in the day this plays out, the better. Ideally within the first 90 minutes to two hours of trading. That leaves the rest of the session for the market to recover and fill Friday's gap — something that sounds impossible when you're in the middle of the selloff, but which Pete says he's watched unfold many times.
What makes the bounce so violent? Two forces colliding at once: short sellers scrambling to cover as futures move 30–40 points against them, and option implied volatility imploding — sucking the air out of put premiums and forcing more covering. The rubber band snaps back hard.
What he does not want to see: a slow, grinding, overlapping drift back toward the 200-day MA. That tells him sellers are still in control and the market risks rolling over to a new low.
What's Driving the Decline
He runs through the macro backdrop quickly:
- FOMC: The Fed held rates and reaffirmed only one cut expected this year. Bad news is now bad news — there's no cavalry coming
- Jobs: 92,000 jobs lost last month, though Pete is skeptical of the number given conflicting data from ADP, Challenger, and jobless claims (205k — a very low reading)
- Inflation: CPI and PPI running hot. PPI core came in at 0.5%. The Fed got burned calling inflation transitory once — they won't make that mistake again
- Oil: Sitting at $120. In his view, any sustainable rally is hard to achieve with oil above $100. Progress in the Middle East would change that calculus quickly
- Valuations: He notes stock valuations haven't been this stretched since the dot-com bubble. With rates staying high, that's a genuine headwind
- GDP: Revised down from 1.4% to 0.7% — partly explained by government shutdowns and bad weather, but a meaningful deterioration nonetheless
His conclusion: there are enough legitimate concerns that this is not simply a one-off event. But price action — not headlines — will determine how he trades it.
The Two Scenarios He's Mapping
Scenario 1 — The legitimate bounce: Selling climax plays out. Stacked green candles, heavy volume, market clears the 200-day MA with conviction and pushes quickly back toward the 100-day MA. In this case, the recent selloff was likely an overreaction — war, oil, and sentiment — and buyers are still engaged. He'd be selling bullish put spreads and riding the recovery.
Scenario 2 — The lower high: The bounce happens but stalls. Within a week to ten days, the market struggles to reclaim the 675 SPY level and starts compressing with tiny overlapping candles. That's his signal to take profits on put spreads, shift gears, and start buying longer-dated puts on weak stocks. A lower high following a break of the 200-day MA, combined with a failure to reclaim horizontal support, is a textbook bear market entry signal. He's ready for it — and says he'll be covering exactly how to trade a bearish market cycle if it develops.
Strategy: What to Trade Right Now
He's emphatic on one point: do not buy calls on the bounce. Option implied volatility is extremely elevated right now. If you buy calls and the market rallies, you'll watch your options barely move — or even lose value — as IV collapses. Buying calls here means fighting the vol crush.
What he recommends instead:
- Sell bullish out-of-the-money put spreads — take advantage of the elevated premiums rather than paying them. Keep expiration inside three weeks to maximize time decay
- Buy shares — straightforward exposure without the vol drag
- Short VIX — once the market clears the 200-day MA, VIX shorting becomes attractive. He's watching the $32–$33 level; a break back below that on the bounce would be his entry. Target: high 20s
- Take profits quickly if the bounce stalls — don't let winning put spreads turn into losers if the market fails to follow through
The Stocks He's Watching
AVGO (Broadcom) ▶ AVGO discussion Still his preferred semiconductor name. Both AVGO and the market need to reclaim the 200-day MA for this to work. The stock has held up relatively well during the decline. He likes selling put spreads once the selling climax plays out.
Google (GOOGL) ▶ Google setup Holding near the $300 level with positive relative strength — green line above zero throughout the selloff. He'd look to sell a bullish put spread below $290–$295 once the market reclaims the 200-day MA. A high-conviction name for him.
Planet Labs (PL) ▶ PL chart A post-earnings gap-up that held all of its gains during Friday's market bloodbath — which he considers a strong signal of institutional conviction. The company does satellite imaging of the Earth, has positive cash flow, and recently completed a $400M convertible bond offering that should remove near-term capital raise risk. He's looking to sell the April $28 puts — targeting ~$1.40 in premium, which represents roughly a 10% return on margin in one month. The stock would need to fall nearly 20% to put the trade at risk.
ASTS (SpaceMobile Inc) A longer-term position he's been in. Had a capital raise that caused a dip — a lesson he draws from: always check whether a company may need to issue shares before selling puts. He's looking at the April $75–$70 put spread, targeting $1.00 in premium for a 25% return on margin.
The Core Message
Pete is not bearish. But he's not blindly bullish either. He's waiting — specifically for the selling climax pattern to confirm before putting capital to work. Until that pattern plays out cleanly, he's sitting on his hands.
His process in one sentence: wait for the setup, not the story.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is a summary of a publicly available YouTube session and does not represent the author's personal trading opinions or financial advice. All views, levels, and trade ideas referenced belong to the presenter of the original video. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.