European Portfolio Manager Dr. Beck Special Broadcast — March 26, 2026
English summary from the German video interview with Dr. Beck
The Three-Pot Framework
The underlying philosophy: split money by time horizon — pot 1 (next 12 months) in money market, pot 2 (2–3 years) in bonds, pot 3 (5+ years) in equities. Review allocation once a year.
Pot 2 — Fixed Income One (bond strategy, launched 2023)
- Generated ~12% return in roughly 2 years
- Currently experiencing ~2% max drawdown from peak — significant for bonds
- The selloff has pushed yields back above 3.6%, which he views as attractive
- Euro yield curve has risen across all maturities: German 10yr now at 3%, French at 3.9%
- He views these levels as unsustainable given Germany's collapsing consumer confidence, layoffs, and bankruptcies — expects the ECB to intervene as a bond buyer
- Top holdings: French government bonds (8–11yr duration), IBM corporate bonds; portfolio duration now over 5 years
Pot 3a — Xtrackers Portfolio ETF (50/50 balanced, launched 2008)
- Currently slightly above 50% equities / ~50% bonds
- Still positive on a yearly basis despite turbulence
- No regime change triggered yet — that only happens at a 20% drawdown on equities
- The 50/50 structure cushioned losses significantly vs. 100% equity
Pot 3b — Global Portfolio One (80% equity in normal phases, launched 2019)
- Currently at 66% equities (down from 80% standard) due to market losses shifting the ratio passively
- Holding off on rebalancing — waiting for markets to stabilise; if things escalate further, will wait for a formal regime change and jump straight to 90% equity (countercyclical buying)
- Gold allocation: 1.5% (reduced after turbulence)
- Swiss franc bonds: performing well, yield over 1.1%
- Norwegian krone bonds: ~2% allocation, ~6% currency gains YTD but too small/volatile for larger sizing
- US dollar government bonds: nearly eliminated since April last year
- Cash/liquidity: 3.8% — deliberately pre-positioned for rapid rebalancing
Key Risk Management Takeaway
"Whether a portfolio works in a crisis is decided before the crisis."
The manager is calm — not much has happened on equity markets yet, bonds are actually more attractive now at higher yields, and the ECB has tools ready. He's keeping powder dry and watching for a regime change signal before acting aggressively.
Further Reading (German)
The following is only available in German but should not be an issue in 2026 with browser and PDF plugins
Veröffentlichungen | Bücher, Studien & Beiträge von Dr. Andreas Beck
Bücher wie „Erfolgreich wissenschaftlich investieren“ und „Zinsen verstehen und nutzen“ sowie Studien zu Altersvorsorge, ETFs, ethischen Investments und Risikomanagement.
